Finance

Trade barriers could threaten global growth, OECD warns

Trade barriers could threaten global growth, OECD warns”

07 de marzo de 2017, 17:36Washington, Mar 7 (Prensa Latina) Political uncertainty could derail the slight world economic recovery, said today the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), in reference to the greatest protectionism planned by the Government in the United States.

The OECD also raised its estimates for several of the world's biggest economies, including the United States and China, but kept its world economic estimate unchanged at 3.3 per cent - just slightly better than last year's weak 3.0 per cent. Global economic growth for 2018 is forecast to be 3.6 per cent.

The global economy portrayed by the Interim Economic Outlook remains beset by sub-par GDP growth and high inequality, calling for policy responses that advance inclusive growth in the context of increased economic integration.

"Policy choices, including on the composition of fiscal spending, taxation, regulation and trade, are likely to have a significant impact on growth outcomes", the group said.

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Moreover, "financial vulnerabilities and policy risks could derail the modest [global economic] recovery", writes the OECD Chief Economist Catherine Mann.

The rapid growth of private credit in emerging economies, especially China, is another key risk, as is the housing market in some advanced economies.

The growth projection for the USA for this year was raised to 2.4 percent, while the forecast for next year was trimmed to 2.8 percent.

In 2018, US growth was seen at 2.8 down from a previous estimate of 3 percent.

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The think-tank said Canada's economy will be supported this year by export growth, a better market for commodities and government spending initiatives.

In Europe, the OECD said the modest pace of growth is expected to continued, but would be hindered in some areas by high levels of unemployment and underemployment - particularly of young people.

The new prediction is in line with the Eurozone's expected growth of 1.6% although due to Trump's spending promises the U.S. economy is forecast at 2.4% for 2017.

Japan's growth forecast for this year was raised to 1.2 percent and the outlook for next year was retained at 0.8 percent. Prospects will depend on the extent to which labour-market duality is reduced and wage growth picks up.

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In China, growth is projected to slop to 6.5% this year and down again to 6.3% next year as the Chinese economy transitions from external demand and heavy industry towards domestic consumption and services.



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